Facebook IPO and Tech Overvaluing

The economy being what it is, it’s fairly disconcerting to see a firm like Facebook have such a lackluster IPO. On Friday I tweeted that FB’s IPO was likely to signal this decade’s first major failure of tech and web companies to gain “real-world” traction despite large investments from various big players. I hate to say this, but web-based firms are notoriously difficult to monetize on the scale that Zuckerberg et al. seem to be shooting for, and I don’t think they’ll be able to pull it off, especially given the added attention their business practices will receive from a very scrupulous open market. We’ll see how this develops, but I’m decidedly bearish.

mklemos:

I want at least a dozen of these bad-boys. 

A Charleston-rolled Llanos Dos Palmas Dominican cigar. Will review tomorrow if I get the time.

The Shot Heard Round Nowhere

At the moment, 2012 Mitt Romney is losing to 2008 John McCain and only beating 2008 Mitt Romney by 4%. If he doesn’t break 45% by the end of the night, this is no major victory.

I’m about to test drive this Arturo Fuente Gran Reserva.

Looks like the Newt camp is finally falling into the narrative that I predicted would be the most effective going into the middle of the season, contrasting the boldness of Gingrich’s policy ideals to the fairly anemic ones offered by the Romney camp. Negative, in a sense, but truthful, and that’s what counts.

The Hawkeye Caucii Postgame Analysis

Well that was fun to watch.

Despite his 8 vote deficit in the final tally, Rick Santorum won last night’s contest in Iowa. Had Mitt not campaigned as hard as he did in Iowa, this would simply be another case of social conservatives battling it out while the real action got going in New Hampshire, and Mitt’s showing would be stellar. Unfortunately for the Romney camp, they legitimized the caucuses with Mitt’s attention and a massive amount of super-PAC money, and I think they’ll pay the price for that move over the next few news cycles, not by feeding the perception of failure, but by feeding the perception of anemia that has plagued the campaign to this point.

The other winner last night was Jon Huntsman, whose decision to stay out of the Iowa mudfest was probably the best strategic choice of his campaign to date. It’s now clear that Huntsman was the smart one here, and he’ll reap the benefits of keeping himself clean up to this point. Look to Huntsman as the credible challenger to Romney in next week’s New Hampshire contest.

Dumping 3 million dollars in ads to trash Gingrich, the guy who wasn’t even the actual threat, makes Iowa a phyrric victory at best for Mitt. Romney now has to lean hard on New Hampshire to make sure there are no surprises at all (can you say Jon Huntsman?), which gives everybody else the chance to tool around South Carolina, and build enough momentum to carry on and be a real rival to Romney. 

I’d be remiss not to mention Ron Paul’s contribution to last night’s madness. We now know that his fabled youth turnout machine is a paper tiger, and that his support came largely from the same petulant fringe activists that always show up to these things. A third place finish in Iowa now relegates Paul to gadfly status, which is where he should be. Eventually we’ll see the 10% of Republicans who are in his camp leave the GOP for good, and the party will be better off for it.

Newt remains ahead in the national RCP average, and within the margin against Mitt in the Gallup tracker, so I think he’s the guy to pull of a few crucial victories as South Carolina and Florida approach. I guess we’ll see how the bones fall over the next few weeks.

Iowa Predictions

For the record, here’s how I think the bones will fall: 

Santorum wins by 2%, followed closely by Romney and Paul. Gingrich takes 4th place, not by much. The complicating factor here is the proportion of new caucusgoers that may go for Paul. If new and young voter turnout is big enough, Paul could edge out Romney. We have a good general idea of where likely voters fall, but Paul has a very untested base of support that hasn’t been subjected to many of the traditional metrics yet. 

One thing that hasn’t been mentioned a lot is the fact that this will ultimately come down to delegates, regardless of who wins the horserace. I expect a lot of the media coverage the coming weeks to focus on how this actually plays out in terms of awarding delegates come time for the national convention.

Vice President Biden on internet freedom, just a short while ago. Let’s hope the administration puts its money where its mouth was and vetoes SOPA.

Striking Out On My Own

One year ago today, I left the University of Dallas, and ultimately decided not to return. That decision has proven to be the best education choice I have ever made. I’ve accomplished a lot over the past year, and the work that I do is rewarding and fulfilling, nothing like running the academic rat race.

If you’re still in college, I encourage you to consider dropping out, even if it’s just for a semester or a year. Work in a field you’re passionate about, start a business, or just explore what the world has to offer. I promise that you’ll learn a lot more than you would sitting in a lecture hall playing Angry Birds. 

Newt Gingrich’s most recent ad adopts precisely the kind of tone that we need injected into America’s political dialogue. Newts momentum continues unbroken, and if he keeps up the run he’s been on for the past few weeks, he’ll have a great shot at being the nominee.

Time and a Word: Hillary Clinton, Right Now →

Great article about the disfunction in the Democrat Party, and how President Obama stepping aside and allowing Hillary Clinton to take his place on the ticket will help lift the nation out of its political morass.

comicsalliance:

‘Dilbert’ Creator Scott Adams Announces He’s Running For President

Even though it’s a solid year away, the 2012 Presidential Campaign is already heating up, and with it, the same complaints about our electoral system that crop up every four years. Voters often say that they wish there was a viable candidate outside of the traditional two-party system, someone who could come in and shake things up so that we’re not necessarily limited to the same two choices.

This time, however, there’s a difference. One man has heard the call, America. One man is willing to step outside the established system: Dilbert creator Scott Adams has announced his candidacy for president, running as an independent on the platform of “managers are totally dumb, am I right?” And as unlikely as it seems, we here at ComicsAlliance think he’s a totally viable candidate.

Read more at ComicsAlliance.

I don’t believe we should eliminate the Fed – that would put interest rates in the hands of Congress, and let’s be honest, that’s a horrible idea.

— Jessica Huseman in a great article in GenWhYPress on #occupy, hipsters, and the Fed.

Pakistan Civilian Leadership Ready To Boot Army/ISI

Currently developing…

Looks like recently released memos confirm the anti-military sentiment within Pakistan’s civilian leadership. This certainly isn’t a surprise, and is overdue given the support for Musharraf that is endemic to the Pakistani military, but the fact that this has been so strongly coordinated with ISAF is news to a lot of people. I’ll be watching this development closely, as it portends serious changes in the geopolitical framework of Central Asia and the subcontinent. I’ve linked to the article below, read up and tell me what you think:

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/17/exclusive_secret_pakistan_us_memo_revealed_ijaz_calls_amb_haqqani_architect_of_sche